KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Chiefs know that during the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend, they will host the No. 6 seed at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. But until the conclusion of the Sunday night finale between Buffalo and Miami, they won’t know the identity of their opponent, which could be any of five teams.
Four AFC teams have punched their tickets for the postseason, and three of those teams have locked up their seed position. Baltimore will be the No. 1 seed with a first-round bye. The Cleveland Browns, much like the Chiefs who are the No. 3 seed and won’t move up or down, have secured the No. 5 seed.
While Miami has clinched a playoff spot, they haven’t secured the AFC East title yet. The champion of the AFC East will take the No. 2 seed and host the lowest-ranked (No. 7) Wild Card team. If Miami beats Buffalo, the Bills will be the sixth or seventh seed depending on the rest of the weekend’s games. If Buffalo beats Miami, the Dolphins will be the No. 6 seed and visit Kansas City.
The outcome of Miami-Buffalo has the largest impact on Kansas City’s opponent. There are 32 different outcomes for the AFC playoff seeding process. In 16 of those scenarios, the Dolphins are the No. 6 seed and will visit the Chiefs. That’s what will happen if Buffalo wins at Miami. If the Dolphins win, there are four scenarios each in which Pittsburgh, Houston or Indianapolis will be Kansas City’s opponent.
Let’s break it down chronologically (all times central time). These are the four games that have the most impact on selecting Kansas City
Pittsburgh (9-7) at Baltimore (13-3), 3:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 6
The Steelers need the most help in getting into the playoffs. There is no scenarios where the Steelers win and they are in, they are primarily dependent on a loss by Buffalo or Jacksonville to get into the playoffs.
How do the Steelers play in Kansas City? A win over Baltimore, a loss by Buffalo, and a win by Tennessee, and the Steelers secure the No. 6 seed.
Houston (9-7) at Indianapolis (9-7), 7:15 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 6
Both teams can clinch a playoff spot with a win but both need a Jacksonville loss at Tennessee on Sunday to win the AFC South.
How do the Texans play in Kansas City? Beat the Colts along with wins by Jacksonville and Miami on Sunday makes the Texans the No. 6 seed.
How do the Colts play in Kansas City? Same here. Beat the Texans along with wins by Jacksonville and Miami on Sunday makes the Colts the No. 6 seed.
Jacksonville (9-7) at Tennessee (5-11), noon, Sunday, Jan. 7
The Titans are eliminated from the playoff picture but Jacksonville has everything for which to play. They have an easy postseason path, which is to beat Tennesse and clinch the AFC South. There is no path for the Jaguars to claim the No. 6 seed but this game has a huge impact on the Houston/Indianapolis winner.
Buffalo (10-6) at Miami (11-5), 7:20 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 7
This game can make the previous three games moot or all-important. The most simple outcome Buffalo wins, clinches the AFC East crown and locks the Dolphins into the No. 6 seed to travel to Kansas City. It should be obvious by now that a Miami win makes things interesting.
How do the Bills play in Kansas City? Bills lose to Miami, Tennessee beats Jacksonville and Baltimore beats Pittsburgh.
The most likely outcome
Given that 16 of 32 possible outcomes have the Dolphins coming to Kansas City, mathematically that matchup is a favorite. It also fits with the current betting line, which has the Bills at around a three-point favorite. If the Bills win, the Dolphins come to Kansas City.
ESPN’s Playoff Machine, based on winning percentage, tabs the Bills as the likely opponent — although that is based on the unlikely outcome that Indianapolis and Houston tie. If the team with the better record wins each game this week, the winner of Indianapolis and Houston comes to Kansas City. The visiting Texans are currently a slight favorite in this game, so if they win they would come to Kansas City.
If all home teams win, it’s a Bills-Chiefs rematch.
Based on betting odds right now, the most likely opponent would be Miami followed by Houston, Indianapolis, Buffalo and Pittsburgh in that order.
