KANSAS CITY, Mo. — In just 13 days, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach in his staff will bunker down in the warroom at One Arrowhead Drive for the 2024 NFL Draft, and between now and then there will be thousands upon thousands of mock drafts projecting who will be selected by each club.
This is one of them.
As I explain each season, I favor using online simulators for my mock drafts to create the obstacle of an opponent. It’s not very challenging if I can imagine a top-15 player falling to No. 32 or rationalize taking a player in the second round because one analyst slaps a fifth-round grade on him with which no else concurs. Simulators with trade options are also nice so you can experiment with that scenario.
For mock draft 1.0 , I’ll be using the Pro Football Focus simulator with middle range setting on all options. That will balance the public vs. PFF board, positional value, draft for needs and randomness. We’re going for realism, not insanity.
Our mission here is also going to be to stay put and draft the best available player. Yes, team needs will be a huge factor — no, PFF, I’m not selecting a quarterback for Kansas City in the second round. We’re also not forcing a position at any pick. This first version of the mock draft is to get a feel for the landscape and see where the opportunities to move up and move back. Think of this as a calibration draft. In future versions we’ll be making trades and game-playing other scenarios.
Round 1, No. 32 overall: T Amarius Mims, Georgia
With three receivers going in the top five selections and six receivers overall in the first round, the pickings were slim for the Chiefs to bulk up their pass-catching corps. But Georgia tackle Amarius Mims sitting there at No. 32 is too good of an option to slip through Kansas City’s grasp.
Mims is one of five consensus first-round choices and has the best size (6-foot-7, 340 pounds, 36 1/8-inch arms) behind Notre Dame’s Joe Alt, son of Chiefs 2002 Hall of Honor inductee John Alt. He’s still just 21 years old and “his football character is, ‘more than expected,” according to NFL scouts writes Dan Brugler of The Athletic. While he played 30 games in college, only eight were starts and all were at left tackle, He also missed six games last year due to an ankle injury.
Mims is raw due to the lack of starts, says Nick Jacobs of the 41 is Mic podcast. But his physical traits and his easy athleticism make him a player with a ton of upside.
“The way he’s able to keep defenders at bay is ease, and it’s just like breathing for him,” Jacobs says. “And the power — he didn’t even realize the power he has yet. Once he gets an O-line coach that taps into that level of power that he’s got available, I’m telling you that’s going to be a dominant tackle.”
Other options: WR Troy Franklin, Oregon and DE Darius Robinson, Missouri
Trade-up possibilities: The Chiefs’ No. 32 pick plus the 2025 third-round pick (acquired from Tennessee for L’Jarius Sneed) should be enough to get Kansas City as high as No. 25 (Green Bay). It’s unlikely Dallas would move out of No. 24 but Tampa Bay (26) and Arizona (27) are also both possible candidates. The key is getting in front of Buffalo at No. 28 to have your pick of a receiver such as Adonai Mitchell or Ladd McConkey
Trade back possibilities: Moving back four to eight spots could net the Chiefs either an early fourth or late third-round selection. That scenario would be appealing only if an elite receiver or offensive tackle isn’t available at No. 32.
Round 2, No. 64 overall: DE Austin Booker, Kansas
Veach has a history of making moves in the second round, and it’s easy to see him making the same decision again this season. The 2025 third-round selection from Tennessee, if not used to move up in the first round, could move the Chiefs into the middle of the second round and make a player such as Orgeon’s Franklin, Missouri’s Robinson or a top safety (Washington State’s Jaden Hicks or Georgia’s Javon Bullard).
Why do the Chiefs need another edge defender after drafting George Karlaftis in 2022 and Felix Anudike-Uzomah a year ago then re-signing Mike Danna to a two-year deal? You can never have enough pass rushers with length (6-foot-4, 253 pounds with an 81 7/8 wing span at his pro day), and the Chiefs rely on depth to keep their front four fresh
Booker, who spent two seasons at Minnesota before transferring to Kansas last season, also has limited playing experience (18 college games), just like Mims. Also like Mims, he had tremendous production when given the opportunity, earning first-team All-Big 12 honors with eight sacks, 12 tackles for a loss and a pass defended. Booker is a cheaper replacement for Charles Omenihu, who is entering the final season of a two-year $16 million contract.
“Booker is lacking in body mass and overall experience (just 505 career college snaps),” Brugler writes, “but he is an ascending player with the ability to maximize his athletic traits and body length/force with proper biomechanics. With his tools and instincts, he projects as a rotation player in Year 1 with the potential to become an impact starter.”
Other options: WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina and DT T’Vondre Sweat, Texas
Round 3, No. 95 overall: S Calen Bullock, USC
Another question Chiefs fans may ask: why draft another safety after selecting Bryan Cook in the 2022 second round and Chamarri Conner in last year’s fourth round? The answer is Justin Reid, a 27-year-old safety entering the final year of his three-year $31.5 million free agent deal signed in 2022. If the club doesn’t plan extend Reid beyond 2024 and into his 30s, safety depth behind Cook and Conner becomes a need for 2025, especially if Conner remains in a nickel corner role in the slot.
The 6-foot-2, 188-pound Bullock improved progressively throughout his career with the Trojans, earning freshman All-American, second-team All-Pac 12 and first-team All-Pac 12 during his three seasons with USC. He finished his junior season 61 tackles and in 38 college games with 32 starts, Bullock picked off nine passes and defended another 24. His size and athleticism (4.48 40-yard time) have some teams considering him at cornerback. That versatility has worked in the past Sneed and Conner.
Other Options: G Cooper Beebe, Kansas State, WR Brenden Rice, USC and S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Texas Tech
Round 4, No. 131 overall: G Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
Offensive guard is another position where the Chiefs may have an eye toward the 2025 season with center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith (not to mention linebacker Nick Bolton) all entering free agency and the club facing a decision whether to keep 33-year-old left guard Joe Thuney at a $26.97 cap hit or move on and save $16 million in cap space.
Beebe still around in the fourth round might prove too good to be true. Brugler rates him as the No. 3 guard in this year’s class with a second-round grade. He turns 23 in May after five college seasons in which he played 51 games with 48 starts, including 26 at left guard, 13 at left tackle and nine at right tackle. His 31 1/2-inch arm length insures his future as interior lineman but his capable of playing all five offensive line positions in a pinch. He would project as the backup interior lineman in 2024 with a chance to step into a starting role in Year 2.
Other options: HB Will Shipley, Clemson, DT Mekhi Wingo, LSU and DT Khristian Boyd, Norther Iowa
Round 5, No. 159: WR Luke McCaffrey, Rice
Yes, the name sounds familiar because McCaffrey is the younger brother of San Francisco all-purpose back Christian McCaffrey and son of former Denver receiver Ed McCaffrey. The NFL runs through his veins, and he shows the same toughness and athleticism as his brother and father.
The also should be room for McCaffrey to mature as a receiver since he only moved to the position in 2022. He played three seasons at quarterback for Nebraska and Rice before moving to receiver, and in two seasons he caught 129 passes for 1,715 yards and 19 touchdowns. He earned first-team All-AAC honors last season and was a team captain.
His best strength is ability to make catches through contact. Standing 6-foot-1, 198 pounds at the NFL Combine, rice ranked second in the FBS with 17 contested catches last season.
Round 5, No. 173: DT Marcus Harris, Auburn
Another player with local ties to Kansas City, Harris started his career at Kansas in 2019 before transferring to Auburn in 2021. He started 37 games for the Tigers over the past three seasons tallying 11 sacks and 23 1/2 tackles for loss. He led Auburn’s defensive last season with seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss while also forcing a fumble and defending a pass.
Despite the Chiefs returning all of the defensive tackles they ended the season with on their Super Bowl roster, Derrick Nnadi, Tershawn Wharton, Mike Pennel and Matt Dickerson are all on one-year deals. At 6-foot-2, 304 pounds on his pro day (18 pounds heavier than at the NFL Combine), Harris isn’t the the true nose tackle the Chiefs could use against the run but his quickness makes him a potential havoc create in a gap.
Round 7, No. 221: WR Joshua Cephus, Texas-San Antonio
Another quarterback-turned pass catcher, Cephus put up progressively strong numbers at UTSA, finishing his senior season with 89 catches for 1,151 yards, 10 touchdowns and one drop. He only dropped nine passes in five seasons with against 313 catches.
That’s why it’s easy to envision the 6-foot-2, 193 pound Cephus as a “Patrick friendly” target for Mahomes, according to Brugler’s scouting report, despite a pedestrian 4.58 time in the 40-yard dash at his pro day.
“Overall, Cephus isn’t a burner and is only average after the catch, but his body control and quarterback-friendly ball skills are better than several pass catchers currently playing on Sundays,” Brugler wrote.
FINAL GRADE: B
I won’t dispute PFF’s final grade, although I disagree with some of their individual assessments. While the selection of Mims earned an A-plus, the Booker and Bullock selections both received C-plus with Beebe a B-minus. I will argue that one, since Beebe should be gone before pick No. 131. That grade is probably correlated with PFF not ranking offensive interior line as great a long-term need for the Chiefs as I do.
I will also dispute the C grade for McCaffrey in the fifth round. He’s tremendous value there, I think PFF underrates him a big. Harris pulled in a C-minus while Cephus gets an A-minus for the second-best grade of this class.
One quick PFF will need to work on: the simulator’s mock draft assistant criticized me for taking Booker instead of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in the second round. I’m pretty sure I would have been laughed out of the draft war room had I as the GM of the Chiefs taken a quarterback in the second round.
The lesson learned here for Veach is that you can’t necessarily hope for a receiver or left tackle to fall to No. 32. The 2025 third-round selection from Tennessee is the best currency the Chiefs have for moving up. That should be enough to move up to as high as No. 23 (Minnesota). A deal at 25 or later could also net back an additional late-round pick making it a wash from a number of picks lost/acquired standpoint.
It also feels like the Chiefs will need to be aggressive in the second round and third rounds as well to get positional value. When you’re picking last in the round, it’s hard to get value. You’ll often be left with players on whom you have lower-round grades or at less premium positions.
In mock draft 2.0 on Monday, April 15, we’ll be on the lookout for trade opportunities and where Veach may want to move forward — or step back.
