KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Mock draft season officially comes to an end as the real NFL Draft takes center stage Thursday night, and conventional wisdom suggests fans should prepare for a wild and unpredictable first round.
There’s a multitude of reasons why the 2023 NFL Draft may unfold in an unexpected fashion. It starts at the top where there isn’t a consensus overall No. 1 selection. While the Carolina Panthers are widely expected to open the show in selecting a quarterback with the first choice of the evening, there’s no advance intelligence indicating whether it will be Alabama’s Bryce Young, Kentucky’s Will Levis or even Florida’s Anthony Richardson.
The Chiefs are penciled in as the 31st and final selection of the night from the stage at Union Station in downtown Kansas City. But whether general manager Brett Veach sits tight there remains to be seen. It’s even more difficult to forecast who the Chiefs may choose with the first selection given the wide-open nature of this year’s draft.
Here’s my look inside the crystal ball envisioning how the first round may unfold on Thursday night. While I did not especially factor in any potential trades, there are a few spots where I’m projecting a player to go based on overall value and interest and not specifically the fit for the team on the board.
With those caveats out of the way, let’s go.
1) Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
2) Houston Texans: ED Will Anderson Jr., Alabama
3) Arizona Cardinals: OL Paris Johnson Jr. Ohio State
4) Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
5) Seattle Seahawks: DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
6) Detroit Lions: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
7) Las Vegas Raiders: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
8) Atlanta Falcons: ED Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
9) Chicago Bears: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
10) Philadelphia Eagles: ED Nolan Smith, Georgia
11) Tennessee Titans: CB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
12) Houston Texans: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
13) Green Bay Packers: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
14) New England Patriots: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
15) New York Jets: OT Darnell Wright, Tennesse
16) Washington Commanders: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
17) Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
18) Detroit Lions: ED Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
20) Seattle Seahawks: WR Jordan Addison, USC
21) Los Angeles Chargers: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
22) Baltimore Ravens: S Brian Branch, Alabama
23) Minnesota Vikings: CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
24) Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
25) New York Giants: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
26) Dallas Cowboys: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
27) Buffalo Bills: OG Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
28) Cincinnati Bengals: ED Myles Murphy, Clemson
29) New Orleans Saints: DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
30) Philadelphia Eagles: TE Darnell Washington, Georgia
31) Kansas City Chiefs: WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
This exercise illustrates how a couple of dominoes falling a different way could drastically impact Kansas City at No. 31. If two receivers go off the board in the first 15 selections, the Chiefs would need to run a gauntlet to still nab a receiver such as Flowers. Seattle, Baltimore, the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills each appear to have wide receiver as a key need, which could deplete the talent pool quickly.
Opportunities, however, also crop up in an experiment such as this. If a player such as Harrison falls to No. 19 or lower, that would be worthy of a few calls to move up from No. 31. Veach and his staff have been among the teams inquiring about the cost of moving up in the first round and what that may require.
Last year the Chiefs moved up eight spots to No. 21 by swapping first-round selections (No. 29) with New England along with No. 94 and No. 121 overall. A move from No. 31 to No. 21 this year would probably require the Chiefs to surrender their third-round choice (No. 95 overall) and a fourth-round pick (No. 122) along with potentially a late-round round selection.
